{"id":1610,"date":"2025-04-21T23:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T06:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/?p=1610"},"modified":"2025-04-22T14:15:40","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T21:15:40","slug":"scooters-%e2%86%91-transit-%e2%86%93-and-the-hidden-safety-cos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/scooters-%e2%86%91-transit-%e2%86%93-and-the-hidden-safety-cos\/","title":{"rendered":"Scooters\u00a0\u2191, Transit\u00a0\u2193 and the Hidden Safety Cost"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container has-pattern-background has-mask-background nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1248px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p>This morning, I watched a teenager faceplant on asphalt at 20 mpg on his rented Lime e-scooter.\u00a0 He wasn&#8217;t wearing a helmet, but fortunately was able to get up without any obvious significant injuries.\u00a0 It was horrible to watch and I felt terrible for the kid.\u00a0 He even apologized to his dad, presumably for interrupting their fun planned day.\u00a0 To his father also on a scooter without a helmet, I said I saw his son hit the ground hard and suggested he\u00a0 be checked for concussion.<\/p>\n<p>San\u00a0Francisco\u2019s streets are a living lab for new mobility.\u00a0Walk around SoMa on any Friday night and you\u2019ll see the trend in motion: packs of twenty\u2011somethings gliding past on rental e\u2011scooters while half\u2011empty Muni buses rumble by.\u00a0At first glance the swap looks harmless\u2014until you dig into the numbers.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>1\u2003The Scooter Boom<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>U.S. emergency\u2011department visits tied to e\u2011scooters leapt from\u00a08,566\u00a0(2017) to\u00a056,847\u00a0(2022)<\/strong>\u2014a <strong>+564\u00a0% jump<\/strong> in just five years. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.health.com\/electric-bike-and-scooter-injuries-rising-8689581\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a><\/li>\n<li>JAMA Network\u2011Open analyses show <strong>two\u2011thirds of injured riders are 15\u201144\u00a0years old<\/strong>, squarely in the age band flocking to app\u2011based rentals. <a href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/fullarticle\/2821387\\\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload alignnone size-fusion-800 wp-image-1614\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-800x529.png\" data-orig-src=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-800x529.png\" alt=\"Line graph showing a steady increase in US e-scooter injury emergency department visits from 2017 to 2022, reaching over 50,000 estimated injuries in 2022.\" width=\"800\" height=\"529\" srcset=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%27800%27%20height%3D%27529%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%20800%20529%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%27800%27%20height%3D%27529%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-200x132.png 200w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-400x265.png 400w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-600x397.png 600w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-768x508.png 768w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-800x529.png 800w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend-1024x677.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/e-Scooter-Injury-Trend.png 1179w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-orig-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Chart\u00a01<\/em> (above) traces that injury spike: the curve is almost vertical after 2020, mirroring the post\u2011COVID scooter surge.<\/p>\n<p>Why the injuries? <strong>Speed + instability + zero protection.<\/strong> Studies from UCLA and Austin found <strong>94\u201196\u00a0% of hurt riders wore no helmet<\/strong>; only <strong>4\u20136\u00a0% bothered with one at all<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jamanetworkopen\/fullarticle\/2722574?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a> By contrast, the average crash\u2011involved bicyclist is <strong>helmeted one\u2011quarter of the time<\/strong> and a skier <strong>nine out of ten trips<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/stacks.cdc.gov\/view\/cdc\/64041\\\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>2\u2003A Vanishing Youth on Transit<\/h4>\n<p>Before the pandemic, <strong>Muni averaged ~685\u00a0k weekday boardings<\/strong>\u2014enough to rival many U.S. rail systems. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_San_Francisco_Municipal_Railway_lines?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">*<\/a>\u00a0 Service collapsed in spring 2020, rebounded, and today sits near <strong>486\u00a0k daily (\u2248\u00a075\u00a0% of 2019)<\/strong>.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfmta.com\/blog\/muni-matters-ridership-rise?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a>\u00a0 The macro recovery looks decent\u2014until you slice it by age.<\/p>\n<p>The city\u2019s 2023 <strong>SF\u00a0City Survey<\/strong> shows a sharper fall\u2011off among 18\u2011 to\u00a034\u2011year\u2011olds: <strong>daily transit use dropped from\u00a020\u00a0% (2019) to\u00a015\u00a0% (2023)<\/strong>, and once\u2011a\u2011week travel dipped from 59 % to 53 %.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sf.gov\/reports--april-2023--2023-city-survey-results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a>\u00a0 Focus\u2011group notes for SFMTA\u2019s forthcoming Travel Decision Survey paint the qualitative picture: <em>\u201cMuni feels sketchy after dark,\u201d<\/em> <em>\u201cThe bus is always crowded,\u201d<\/em> <em>\u201cScooters are just quicker.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload alignnone size-fusion-800 wp-image-1616\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-800x529.png\" data-orig-src=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-800x529.png\" alt=\"Bar chart showing average weekday boardings for SF Muni, with a sharp drop from 2019 to 2022, then partial recovery in 2023 and 2024.\" width=\"800\" height=\"529\" srcset=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%27800%27%20height%3D%27529%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%20800%20529%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%27800%27%20height%3D%27529%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-200x132.png 200w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-400x264.png 400w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-600x397.png 600w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-768x508.png 768w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-800x529.png 800w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery-1024x677.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUNI-weekday-recovery.png 1180w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-orig-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Chart\u00a02<\/em> highlights that ridership gap: recovery for the system overall, but a hollowing\u2011out by the very riders who once filled the Night\u2011Owl.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>3\u2003Perceived vs.\u00a0Actual Risk<\/h4>\n<p>Ask a 25\u2011year\u2011old why they avoid the 14\u2011Mission bus and you\u2019ll hear variations on <em>safety, cleanliness, harassment<\/em>. Yet public\u2011health math says the opposite problem looms.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>Passenger\u2011mile fatal\u2011risk ratio (10\u2011year average)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u2022 <strong>Cars vs. buses:<\/strong> <em>50\u00a0\u00d7 deadlier<\/em><br \/>\n\u2022 <strong>Cars vs. rail:<\/strong> <em>17\u00a0\u00d7 deadlier<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/injuryfacts.nsc.org\/home-and-community\/safety-topics\/deaths-by-transportation-mode\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Dedicated scooter data are scarce, but city injury audits peg their crash\u2011injury rate at <strong>more than 300 injuries per 100\u00a0M vehicle\u2011miles<\/strong>\u2014<strong>an order of magnitude above city buses<\/strong> and several times bicycling. *<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload alignnone size-fusion-800 wp-image-1615\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-800x535.png\" data-orig-src=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-800x535.png\" alt=\"Bar chart showing helmet usage rates: E-Scooter (~5%), Adult Bicycling (~30%), Skiing\/Snowboarding (~85%).\" width=\"800\" height=\"535\" srcset=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%27800%27%20height%3D%27535%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%20800%20535%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%27800%27%20height%3D%27535%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-200x134.png 200w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-400x267.png 400w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-600x401.png 600w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-768x513.png 768w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-800x535.png 800w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity-1024x684.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Helmet-Usage-Rates-by-Activity.png 1167w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-orig-sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Chart\u00a03<\/em> visualizes the protective\u2011gear gap that amplifies those crashes: scooters (\u2248\u00a05\u00a0% helmets) vs. bikes (\u2248\u00a026\u00a0%) vs. snow sports (90\u00a0%).<\/p>\n<p>In other words, young adults are <strong>leaving a mode that is statistically the safest urban option for one that is many times riskier\u2014mostly because the safe mode <em>feels<\/em> unsafe.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>4\u2003Why the Switch?<\/h4>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Barrier<\/th>\n<th>Typical quote from 2024 focus groups<\/th>\n<th>Data point<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Personal safety<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u201cI\u2019ve been harassed on the 38 at night\u201d<\/td>\n<td>Only 17\u00a0% of Bay\u2011Area residents say they feel safe on local transit late at night\u00a0(National Transit Snapshot\u00a02024)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Cleanliness\/homelessness<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u201cThe bus smells and there are tents at the stop\u201d<\/td>\n<td>2023 City Survey lists cleanliness as top resident grievance <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sf.gov\/reports--april-2023--2023-city-survey-results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Service frequency<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u201cI wait 20\u00a0minutes, a scooter is right there\u201d<\/td>\n<td>Operator shortages keep some lines at 15\u2011min headways despite demand <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/local\/article\/muni-ridership-surges-to-pre-pandemic-highs-20253988.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Cool factor \/ independence<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>\u201cScooters are fun and I control my ride\u201d<\/td>\n<td>Shared\u2011mobility use rose 200\u00a0% among SF riders aged\u00a018\u201129 in 2022\u201124 (MTC diary sample)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Overlay a lingering COVID\u2011era fear of enclosed spaces and you get the current mode split.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>5\u2003The Cost of the Paradox<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Trauma dollars:<\/strong> Zuckerberg\u00a0SF\u00a0General estimates <strong>average scooter head\u2011injury treatment\u00a0&gt;\u00a0$22\u00a0k<\/strong>, triple a bus\u2011fall case.<\/li>\n<li><strong>City resources:<\/strong> Paramedic dispatches to scooter crashes climbed <strong>31\u00a0% YoY in\u00a02024<\/strong>, straining EMS shift budgets (SFFD CAD extract).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Climate &amp; congestion:<\/strong> Each scooter mile often <em>replaces<\/em> a 10\u2011cent Muni farebox mile, not a car mile, undermining transit\u2019s emissions advantage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>6\u2003Flipping the Script<\/h4>\n<p><strong>Agencies<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Deploy <em>Safe Stop Squads<\/em>: uniformed ambassadors who clean stations and ride hot\u2011spot routes after 7\u00a0p.m.<\/li>\n<li>Pair <em>late\u2011night service boosts<\/em> with promo codes: free Muni transfers embedded in scooter apps to nudge multimodal trips.<\/li>\n<li>Reinstate the <strong>\u201cFree Muni for Youth\u201d<\/strong> pass through age\u00a024 and market it with nightlife partners.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Scooter Operators<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Helmet selfie unlock<\/strong> with in\u2011app discounts.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Geo\u2011fenced slow zones \/ midnight curfews<\/strong> in crash corridors.<\/li>\n<li>First\u2011ride mini\u2011tutorials\u2014think of the airline seat\u2011belt demo but on your phone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Riders<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Treat a scooter like a bike: <em>helmet, lights, sober.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Blend modes: <strong>scooter for the first mile, Muni for the next five<\/strong> keeps cost and risk down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>7\u2003The Narrative We Could Tell<\/h4>\n<p>Imagine this campaign headline on Market Street posters:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>\u201cSkip the ER, Catch the N\u2011Judah.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Underneath: <strong>Muni: 50\u00a0\u00d7 safer than the ride you just rented.<\/strong> Add a QR code linking to a night\u2011owl schedule and a helmet coupon. The message isn\u2019t \u201cScooters are evil\u201d\u2014it\u2019s \u201cChoose the right tool for the trip, and protect your head when you roll.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Because the real story isn\u2019t technology or even traffic engineering. It\u2019s perception. Young San Franciscans aren\u2019t reckless; they\u2019re rational <em>within the frame they see<\/em>. They perceive transit risk they can feel\u2014dirty seats, awkward encounters\u2014and discount the statistical risk they cannot\u2014skull fractures at 15\u00a0mph.<\/p>\n<p>Change that perception, and we can let scooters keep their rightful niche <strong>without paying for it in broken bones<\/strong> (or busted transit budgets).<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Takeaway<\/h3>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>Data shows:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Scooter injuries\u00a0+564\u00a0% (2017\u201122)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Muni youth ridership\u00a0\u201340\u00a0% (2019\u201123)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Transit is dozens of times safer per mile<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Helmets: 5\u00a0% (scooters) vs.\u00a090\u00a0% (skiers)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Until those numbers flip, the Bay\u2019s youngest commuters will keep trading an <em>imagined<\/em> bus risk for a very <em>real<\/em> asphalt one. Let\u2019s give them better information, cleaner buses, and\u2014if they still grab that Lime\u2014an easy\u2011to\u2011grab helmet too.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1618,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-safety","category-transportation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1610"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1623,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610\/revisions\/1623"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ghosh.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}